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Predicted Win % - Pythagorean Theorem

bombers's picture
bombers - Thu, 11/24/2011 - 19:38

Bombers GM has looked at the predicted rankings based on the pythagorean theorem

Winning % =              (Goals For)2                

                    (Goals For)2 + (Goals Against)2

Results:

Simulator is fairly reflective of the formula with actual win% vs predicted win% having an R-squared of 0.6891.  (Predicted win on x-axis, actual win y-axis).

Below are the teams (ranked by win% and predicted win%).  Comforting to know that the Bombers are predicted to be 4th but is only currently unlucky at 8th spot...

Biggest overachiever - Thrashers, w/ a win percentage 0.151 higher than predicted, followed by Alpacas 0.126 higher.

Biggest underachiever - TrueGrit w/ a win percentage 0.076 lower than predicted, followed by Bombers 0.016 lower.  

Win % calculated as 1.000 = 100%.